Prepared for the Parker Problem

By drawing on his past, Fred Hoiberg is equipped to deploy Jabari as an offensive fulcrum.

The Jabari Parker signing will undoubtedly be the hot topic throughout most (if not all) of the 2018–19 season as fans, analysts, and even the front office judge whether the former Simeon player is deserving of extensions, a picked-up player option, or just a pat on the butt and a wave goodbye.

The primary talking points about the forward have been spelled out ad nauseam on TV, radio, and newspaper grafs.

“How does Jabari fit into this lineup, since he’s best at power forward and our most promising player is already a power forward?”

“How can he and LaVine be winning members of this team with such a lackluster approach to defensive basketball?”

“Can we expect to see him perform in The Book of Mormon at the Cadillac?”

I don’t have satisfactory answers to the latter two questions, and to be honest, I still have a lot of personal reservations about Parker’s defensive fit at the 3. But the more I think about Hoiberg and the way he structured the offense at ISU (which vaulted the school back into national prominence almost immediately and made Monte Morris one of the most efficient playmakers in the nation), the more I realize that we’ve been simplifying the idea of “Hoiball” into an extremely reductive narrative.

When we watched the talent-starved Bulls play last season, the changes Hoiberg installed were instantly branded as Hoiball, and it’s not entirely accurate. The Bulls were not trying to win games. They were trying to get the ball to their most important players (though the reasons for Mirotic’s importance were much different than that of, say, Kris Dunn) without regard to the win column. As such, they stressed pace, high shot attempt counts, and the significance of getting all those key figures involved. Efficiency took a back seat to reps, winning took a back seat to development, and Hoiball, as it had so many times before, took a back seat to the demands of management.

So if Hoiball isn’t just “sprint the floor and shoot threes”, what is it?

Well, that’s where it gets interesting.

In many ways, Hoiberg’s system at Iowa State was NBA-ready before the NBA was Hoiball-ready. There were traditional aspects, to be sure: Morris was a playmaking PG first and a scorer second, Georges Niang spent a good chunk of his minutes down in the post, and Jameel McKay played the role of “bruising tall guy blocks shots and collects rebounds” while shooters Bryce DeJean-Jones and Naz Mitrou-Long attacked from the wings.

However, Hoiberg also implemented Niang in a Nikola Jokic-esque role at a time when Jokic couldn’t surpass Jusuf Nurkic or Mason Plumlee in the Nuggets’ lineup. Behind Morris, who led the NCAA in assist-to-turnover ratio three times, Niang was the Cyclones’ most prolific passer (4.5 assists per 40). A lot of his assists came when he was operating in the post, bullying his matchup into submission and drawing eyes from surrounding defenders.
Of course, Niang never showed the vision or passing IQ of Jokic, whose reads and angles on passes are mind-blowing in their accuracy and audacity, but his vision was at least comparable to that of prime Joakim Noah. Niang was actually tasked with relatively simple reads, in part because of how easy the offense made finding an open teammate.

What made Niang’s mostly simple schemes so successful, and how they transfer to Jabari, is the crux of this piece. A close examination of Niang's skillset and ability relative to NCAA reveals a profile eerily similar to Parker’s NBA status: a 6’8" forward with 60th percentile (Jabari’s is higher even in an NBA context—maybe 70th) athleticism who uses his big body (relative to his positional matchups) in the post and at the rim to get his points. Perhaps underrated in Jabari’s skill set is his ability to handle the ball, which is the key unlocking his Niang role in the NBA.

Niang often brought the ball up the floor in Hoiberg’s offense, allowing him to immediately apply pressure towards the rim by going downhill at his opponent. Jabari, being similarly explosive (or non-explosive) by percentile, needs the same snowball effect to effectively collapse the lane. He brought the ball up for Duke a number of times, but in Milwaukee, he was largely phased out of that role when Giannis’ development as a primary option became their foremost focus. Still, Jabari was lauded for his ability to handle the ball at Duke, and he’s shown the ability to find cutters even in the singular preseason game he’s played as a Chicago Bull.

This is far from a great defense in the paint by the Pelicans. Still, Jabari’s pass remains notable for the way it passes by three defenders on its way to the cutting LaVine, on time and leading the guard by enough to keep his momentum intact. With Davis’ ability to block shots over the shoulder of attacking players, that preservation of speed is extremely important.

Here’s another Jabari find from the same game in a similar situation. Faced with the smaller Elfrid Payton, Parker half-posts, drawing over Solomon Hill on a double to counter Parker’s heft. Quickly, he locates Holiday (who ran a great route to the rim after dumping the ball off to Parker) and launches a short-range pass on time and target.

Here, Niang does the same thing. His reputation as a post operator precedes him, drawing a double from Akron defenders as he posts up. A cutting Dustin Hogue gets a really simple layup as a result of Niang’s quick decision and sound pass. That’s how the Jabari exchange should continue to work.

It’s worth noting that the reason Hill even doubled in the first place was due to Parker’s post presence throughout the game. Like the Cyclones with Niang, the Bulls regularly got him the ball on the block and Parker went to work, using his considerable power to force his way into a basket or a foul.

While Parker’s game against the Bucks was largely atrocious, he showed the exact same find-the-roller ability through that half-post, again drawing double coverage. Whether Jabari can continue being successful enough as a post scorer to draw those doubles will be something to follow. He was mind-blowingly inefficient in those spots against Milwaukee.

Getting Jabari going downhill was largely a recipe for success and Bulls fans noticed it from the outset.

From Vijay Vemu’s (@VJVemu on Medium and Twitter) game recap:

Will Gottlieb (@wontgottlieb on Medium and Twitter) was one of the numerous writers who talked about the other perk of Parker bringing up the ball: his ability to break down the defense at the point of attack, seen here.

This was probably Jabari’s most impressive attacking possession, showing off a mature change-of-pace and a tight handle on his way to an easy layup. Jabari, as we’ve discussed, isn’t much of an explosive athlete relative to the NBA norm, and he uses that to his advantage here. Lulling the defender with a few 1st-gear steps, Jabari’s head is up and he’s giving the appearance of a player looking to pass. As soon as his foot hits the wood inside of the three-point line, he feints a drive to the right and quickly cuts left across his body. Solomon Hill is still adjusting to Jabari’s shift from playmaker to an attacker and gets caught reaching.

Look at how Niang does something similar at the NCAA level, setting up from the outside and shaking Jarrod Uthoff with a spin move.

There are still things Parker needs to work on. He showed some ability to hit shots in rhythm off the catch, but he’s drawn to driving rather than taking those looks. He also doesn’t put in a lot of work to get open looks, often just trotting around in space until the play concludes or he receives the ball. Things like this limit how fluidly Parker can slide into the offense, as well as the options Hoiberg has with regard to scheming. While his passing has been mostly solid so far, he needs to continue keeping his eyes up for players with better shot opportunities than himself, rather than elbowing his way into a flailing layup.

Time will tell if these areas of weakness and moments of low-IQ basketball subside as he grows more comfortable with his new teammates, but Parker isn’t the perfect Niang yet. There’s still a lot of growing yet to do. If Parker wants to cash in the second lucrative year of his two-year deal with the Bulls, he’ll have to show the willingness to adapt to Hoiberg’s styles, just as Hoiberg will try to adapt to his.

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